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An analysis of the Southern Hemisphere total ozone as of Oct. 12, 2006, from an instrument on board the NOAA polar orbiting satellite. NOAA uses satellite, airborne and ground-based systems to continuously monitor stratospheric ozone as well as the chemical compounds and atmospheric conditions that affect its concentration. |
Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP)
This scientific study will explore the variability, and associated predictability
of weather, sea ice, ocean wave, and land surface processes in the Arctic
region in the 3-90 days time range, with special emphasis on improving forecast
guidance for high impact events in the 3-14 day lead time range. NOAA will
complete a study of northwest Alaskan coastal waves during the IPY. NOAA
will also participate in sea ice studies at both poles aimed at improving
measurement of ice thickness and forecasting. The NOAA THORPEX program is
expected to introduce forecast products to improve weather and intraseasonal
forecasts for the Arctic.
Progress: Recent accomplishments include:
• The North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) was implemented
at NCEP. NAEFS will contribute to improved weather forecasts in the Arctic
by providing a basis for assigning confidence levels to these forecasts.
• NCEP is working under a bilateral agreement with Russia to provide funding
to enhance radiosonde launches over Siberia. This enhancement is important
to fill an upstream (to Alaska) gap in upper air atmospheric measurements
and may help improve numerical weather prediction in the Arctic.
• Plans are emerging to move the operation of the NOAA Gulfstream IV (G
IV) during the NWS Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) farther west from
where it is normally operated in order to provide upstream targeting of
sensitive areas to improve forecasting of winter storms that impact Alaska.
This special targeting will occur in the winter of 2008.
Advances in Satellite Products and their Use in Numerical Weather
Prediction
Spatially comprehensive observations of the atmosphere in the data-sparse
polar regions significantly and positively impact high latitude numerical
weather predictions. In addition, errors in model forecasts for the high
latitudes often propagate to the mid-latitudes, implying that improvements
to high latitude forecasts will result in better mid-latitude forecasts.
These findings provide the motivation to improve our ability to measure the
polar regions with satellites and to expand the use of these data in numerical
weather prediction systems. NOAA will participate in IPY projects to improve
the application of satellite sensors to environmental problems in the polar
regions.
Progress: Dependent on Congressional approval of the 2007
President's budget.
Arctic Climate Modeling
The general goal of this project is to improve predictions of the Arctic
environment on timescales ranging from seasonal to climate change. Thus,
our research will focus on analyzing and modeling the physical processes
and connections between the Arctic and the rest of the globe. NOAA’s
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory will continue to improve global climate
models that including polar processes.
Progress: Proposals to incorporate ecosystem information
into Arctic climate models have been solicited and reviewed. Funding of
these proposals will depend on Congressional approval of the 2007 President's
budget.
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